Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of los cabos open: cameron norrie vs james duckworth. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and James Duckworth in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page reviews Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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