US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks whether the United States will observe a continuous 14-day period without conducting military operations against Iran between now and end-August 2026. The settlement mechanism is precise: the clock begins on the calendar day following the most recent qualifying action (or market creation if none has occurred), and resolves affirmatively only if that full fortnight passes without fresh strikes. Current pricing at 0% reflects the baseline assumption that such a pause remains unlikely within the timeframe.

Historical precedent suggests extended US-Iran military abstinence is rare but not unprecedented. The period from late 2015 through mid-2018 saw no direct American strikes following the nuclear accord, though proxy tensions remained constant. Conversely, the January 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani initiated a cycle of tit-for-tat escalation that persisted through 2024, with Iranian ballistic missile strikes in April and October 2024 met by Israeli-supported responses. The 0% probability reflects market participants' assessment that current regional volatility—including ongoing Israeli operations and Iranian retaliation cycles—makes a genuine fortnight of restraint improbable by August 2026.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track official Department of Defence announcements, CENTCOM statements, and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps communications as primary signals. Secondary indicators include Israeli military operations (which often precede or trigger American involvement), oil price movements reflecting geopolitical risk, and Congressional statements on Iran policy. The market's resolution hinges on definitional precision around "qualifying military action," making contemporaneous news verification essential rather than relying on delayed official confirmations.

Methodology

We track US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.