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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 77% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 56% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? 55% Volume: $93K Liquidity: $428K Closes: 30 Jul 2026
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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon77%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?55%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
First Blood in Game 2?53%
First Blood in Game 1?53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?44%
Game 1 Winner43%
Game 2 Winner43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?42%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon41%
Match Winner40%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)36%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor14%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor14%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors12%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors12%

Market context

The LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for July 30 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

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