Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kyōto Sanga FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
V-Varen Nagasaki are hosting Kyoto Sanga FC in a J1 League fixture at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, with kick-off listed at 10:00 UTC on 9 August 2026.[2][4][11] For a “More Markets” contract, the key point is that settlement depends on whether additional market lines are offered on this match, so a programmatic watcher would track the exchange’s live market catalogue rather than the football result itself; the current 0% YES implies the contract was not yet populated with qualifying markets at the time of observation.
Historical context for reading that 0% is thin but useful: the sides have played a tight series, with recent head-to-head data showing Nagasaki ahead by only a narrow margin across the last 16–19 meetings, and scorelines often close rather than one-sided.[15][19] Earlier 2026 form also pointed in different directions across sources, with Kyoto beating Nagasaki 1-0 in March and later previews noting Kyoto’s weaker run and Nagasaki’s stronger recent results, which is the sort of volatility that can leave “more markets” availability sensitive to late market-making decisions.[10][1][3]
Traders watching this contract programmatically would usually key off three triggers: the final posted fixture list, any pre-match expansions in derivative markets, and the timing of liquidity arriving in the hours before kick-off.[2][11] If a sportsbook-style preview is any guide, Nagasaki’s home setting and Kyoto’s inconsistent form were the main pre-game narratives, but the actual catalyst for this market is operational: whether the venue, match status, and trading rules produce any new lines before the settlement window closes.[1][4][11]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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