Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
66% | 34% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
66% | 34% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 66% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Match Winner | 62% |
| Game 1 Winner | 57% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 35% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 35% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 35% |
| Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) | 34% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 32% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 32% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 31% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
Market context
Market consensus: 66% chance of lol: jd gaming vs team we (bo3) - lpl group ascend. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and Team WE in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 9 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" i…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: JD Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend on Kalshi Fees
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