Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 11 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Historically, Manila’s July highs cluster around 31°C to 36°C, rarely exceeding 37°C at the airport station, though Metro Manila has recently logged a record July peak of 38.8°C elsewhere in the city [2][7][10]. The current 0% YES crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the day’s maximum to fall outside the specific range offered, likely below the bracket’s lower bound given the typical 31–36°C band and the airport’s slightly moderated readings compared to urban heat pockets [2][3].

Programmatic traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates as the primary dependencies, with the settlement clock fixed at 12:00:00Z on 11 July. A key catalyst is the forecasted cloud cover and rainfall probability for early July Manila, which directly suppresses peak temperatures; AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast indicates daily highs between 84°F and 90°F (29–32°C), reinforcing the expectation of a sub-34°C maximum at the airport [1][2]. Conditional order bots should trigger on Wunderground’s hourly temperature feed, cross-referencing with PAGASA’s heat index announcements to adjust position sizing before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.