Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup quarter-final between Norway and England, set for 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, is the real-world event driving this market. Norway, led by Erling Haaland, recently stunned Brazil with a 2-1 victory in a high-profile friendly, while England secured a 2-1 win over Mexico before facing Norway in Miami. The crowd-implied 7% probability for an exact score reflects the volatility of a knockout match where regulation time ends the betting window, excluding extra time and penalties.

Historically, England dominates this fixture with 22 wins across 31 encounters, including a 6-1 friendly victory in 1966 and a 4-0 World Cup win in 1980, yet Norway’s recent form—knocking out Brazil and beating France—suggests a tighter contest than past records imply. Programmatically, traders should model this as a conditional order where the 7% threshold is only valid if Haaland remains fit, as his absence would drastically shift the exact-score distribution toward lower probabilities.

Key catalysts include the final squad announcements expected within 48 hours and any injury updates on Haaland or England’s top strikers, which could alter the exact-score likelihood. A recent Sky Sports report confirms Haaland’s double against Brazil was pivotal, making his fitness a critical dependency for Norway’s attacking output [1]. Traders monitoring conditional orders must watch for schedule changes, as a postponement would keep the market open, while a cancellation without a make-up game would void it entirely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.