Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Argentina O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| Team to Advance | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Argentina O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Egypt 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Argentina (-1.5) | 44% |
| Egypt O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score | 40% |
| Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Argentina O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Argentina (-2.5) | 22% |
| Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 22% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 20% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Egypt O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Argentina (-3.5) | 9% |
| Argentina (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Egypt O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| Egypt (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Egypt (-2.5) | 1% |
| Egypt (-3.5) | 1% |
| Argentina (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Egypt (-4.5) | 0% |
| Egypt (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, argentina vs. egypt - more markets stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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