Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s heat on 10 August will be determined by the **highest observed temperature** at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, using Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure. In practice, that means a trader tracking this market programmatically would want to poll the station-history page, parse the observation rows, and compare the maximum logged Celsius value against the market’s outcome bands, because the settlement source is observation-level data, not a forecast or headline daily high. [4][16]

The market’s 0% yes pricing is consistent with the fact that August is normally Wuhan’s hottest month, with typical highs around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and extreme summer readings can push above 39°C in exceptional years. Historical summaries for Wuhan show August averages near 33–35°C and record highs around 40–41°C, so outcomes in the upper 20s or low 30s are plausible on a normal day, but the range remains sensitive to heatwave intensity, cloud cover, and rainfall. [2][5][7][14]

For a power-user, the key catalysts are the hourly progression of the airport observations, any late-afternoon convective storms, and whether the site posts a revised observation after the daytime peak. A simple rules engine would watch for the maximum Celsius reading in the table up to the settlement cut-off, then map that maximum into the relevant band; copy-trading or conditional-order logic should be anchored to the observation feed rather than generic weather apps, because the market resolves off that specific source. Weather Underground’s Wuhan page and history pages are the operative inputs here. [4][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.