Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak summer heat on 14 August 2026, with the highest daily temperature at Bao'an International Airport Station determining the resolution bracket. The market settles against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low figures—a distinction that matters when automated feeds pull data at different intervals or when station recalibration occurs mid-day.

August temperatures in Shenzhen cluster reliably between 32–35°C, with extremes occasionally breaching 36°C during particularly intense subtropical pressure systems. Historical data from the past five years shows only three instances of readings exceeding 35.5°C in mid-August; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-typical pattern or uncertainty about data source reliability. Comparable markets on Shenzhen summer maxima have typically resolved in the 33–34°C bands, making outlier brackets less frequently backed.

A trader approaching this programmatically should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released 7–10 days prior and cross-reference them against Weather Underground's station-level feeds to identify any historical drift between sources. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late July or early August could suppress temperatures; conversely, a stalled high-pressure cell would elevate them. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 14 August, creating a hard cutoff for any last-minute forecast revisions. Conditional orders tied to CMA alerts or automated Weather Underground API pulls would flag significant probability shifts before manual traders react.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.