Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s top temperature on 10 August will be judged against the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, so the practical question is whether the station prints a reading that lands inside one of the market’s Celsius bands before the settlement cut-off. Weather Underground’s own history page already shows an 8/8/2026 high of 98°F and a very warm, humid pattern for early August, while current same-day forecasting sources cluster around the upper 90s Fahrenheit, which is roughly 36–37°C.[6][9][11][17]

For historical framing, Shenzhen’s August climate is consistently hot and wet: monthly averages sit near 32°C highs and 27°C lows, and recent August histories commonly produce daily highs around 31–33°C, with some days spiking higher when skies clear or the maritime air mass suppresses rain.[8][12][14] That makes a **0% YES** crowd view easy to understand if the market’s bands are set above the ordinary daily range, but it is less informative if the contract’s winning interval is one of the hotter bins commonly reached in late-summer Shenzhen.[7][12][18]

A programmatic trader would treat this as a data-pull problem: monitor the Weather Underground station page, read the **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low, and map the maximum timestamped Celsius value to the contract’s payout band. The main catalysts are not scheduled announcements but weather dependencies — cloud cover, convective showers, and typhoon-adjacent moisture can suppress daytime highs, while clear late-morning heating can push the station reading higher before midday UTC closes the window.[6][13][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.