Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical averages for Seoul in July show daily highs typically climbing from 81°F to 85°F, rarely dipping below 74°F or exceeding 91°F[1]. Recent years have defied these norms; South Korea endured its second-hottest July since 1973, with averages reaching 27.1°C, and Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July, a record high for that period in 117 years[5][7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high range suggests traders are betting against an extreme outlier, yet the precedent of tropical nights breaking century-old records indicates volatility is a constant factor[6][8].

A power-user approaching this programmatically must monitor real-time dependencies on the Korea Meteorological Administration’s forecast updates and Wunderground’s live station feeds for RKSI. The primary catalyst is the arrival of the monsoon front, which historically suppresses peak temperatures but can cause erratic spikes if stalled. Traders should watch for announcements regarding the timing of the rainy season, as delays often correlate with higher heatwaves, similar to the record-breaking conditions seen in August 2025[5]. Since the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, automated bots must execute conditional orders based on the 06:00 UTC temperature snapshot to capture intraday variance before the official daily maximum is logged.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.