Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, with settlement confirmed via Wunderground data. Current market sentiment anchors a 72–75°F high, yet the crowd-implied probability for the specific outcome sits at only 5% YES, suggesting traders view this range as a distinct outlier against prevailing conditions.

Historical context frames this low probability through recent extremes: LaGuardia hit 102°F on 4 July 2026, breaking daily records, and recorded a historic 94°F midnight temperature, the highest ever for the airport[2][4]. While July averages typically range 81–99°F with highs rarely below 75°F[6][9], the intense early-July heatwave has recently cooled, pulling expectations toward 68–69°F as the frontrunner at 39%[1]. This shift implies the 72–75°F range is less likely than the market’s current cooling trend suggests.

Programmatic traders should monitor operational dependencies and weather schedules, particularly Delta Air Lines’ advisories on heat compounding with LaGuardia constraints[7]. The National Weather Service reports today’s maximum at 70°F, with sunrise at 5:31 AM, indicating a potential divergence from the heatwave peak[8]. Watch for real-time Wunderground updates and any sudden shifts in overnight lows, as the 94°F midnight record proves heat can linger unexpectedly, altering daily highs[3]. Conditional orders should react to these live dependencies rather than static averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.