Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when automated systems scrape different data layers. For programmatic traders, this means building conditional logic that queries the correct endpoint; mismatched sources have historically caused disputes in temperature markets, particularly when intraday readings spike above the official daily maximum listed in summary sections.

New York's August temperatures typically range from 75°F to 88°F, though heat waves push readings into the low 90s. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing in an unusually cool August or reflects uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Historical August records at LaGuardia show variability: the station recorded 96°F on 9 August 2024 and 94°F on 15 August 2023, establishing that mid-90s outcomes occur roughly every few years. Traders should cross-reference multi-year August datasets to calibrate expectations against the specific resolution bands offered.

Monitoring atmospheric patterns from early August 2026 becomes critical—subtropical high-pressure systems typically drive peak temperatures in the Northeast during mid-August. National Weather Service forecasts released 7–10 days prior will signal whether tropical moisture or continental air masses dominate. API integrations pulling NWS data alongside historical LaGuardia records allow traders to weight probabilities dynamically as the settlement date approaches, adjusting for seasonal anomalies and real-time pressure systems.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.