Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Historically, Manila’s June highs typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with PAGASA short-range guidance supporting this band. Recent market activity on similar dates, such as 26 June, shows frontrunners at 31°C (32%) and 32°C (30%), while a 29 June 2026 event currently assigns 62% probability to 29°C and 30% to 30°C. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for “YES” in this specific market likely reflects a misalignment in outcome definitions rather than actual climatic improbability, as temperatures below 25°C are exceptionally rare in June at NAIA.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for NAIA, particularly any anomalies in cloud cover or rainfall that could suppress peak temperatures. A recent PAGASA report noted a record heat index of 45°C at NAIA in April 2024, underscoring the station’s capacity for extreme readings, though June averages remain more moderate. Programmatically, this market is best approached by building a conditional order bot that triggers on Wunderground’s hourly NAIA data, cross-referenced with PAGASA’s forecast deviations. Key dependencies include the timing of the settlement window (ending 12:00 UTC on 30 June) and the precise temperature range thresholds defined in the market contract, which may exclude outcomes the crowd mistakenly deems impossible.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.