Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This event is the upcoming FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for Tuesday, 30 June 2026. Côte d'Ivoire have qualified for the knockout stage for the first time in their history, while Norway finished second in Group I after a 4–1 loss to France [2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 27% YES suggests the market views Norway as the likely winner, yet early money is heavily favouring Côte d'Ivoire, causing their odds to drop [1].

Historically, Norway has appeared in the main World Cup tournament only four times, whereas Côte d'Ivoire is a debutant in the knockout phase, creating a unique dynamic where underdog momentum often overrides historical pedigree [4]. Comparable cases from recent World Cups show that teams with six consecutive qualifier wins, like Norway’s recent streak, often face early exits against historically resilient African sides in tight knockout fixtures [3]. The 27% probability aligns with Norway’s red-hot form but may underestimate the psychological boost of Côte d'Ivoire’s historic breakthrough.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late tactical shifts from both managers, as Norway’s reliance on Erling Haaland could be a dependency if he faces fitness issues [1]. Recent coverage highlights that Côte d'Ivoire stunned France in the group stage, suggesting their defensive resilience may be a key catalyst for an upset [7]. Conditional orders should be placed with caution, given the market’s volatility and the likelihood of a close result, potentially ending in extra time [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.