Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Programmatically, a power-user would query Wunderground’s historical API for this specific station and timestamp, filtering for the daily maximum to resolve the market range. This approach bypasses manual chart reading and ensures the data aligns with the official settlement source.

Historical patterns frame the current 0% YES probability as a mispricing. July highs in Lucknow typically decrease from 96°F to 91°F, rarely dipping below 85°F or exceeding 103°F[1]. Recent data shows the region hit 43.4°C on 26 June 2026, its hottest day of the season so far[5], while the all-time peak reached 47.8°C in June 2025[6]. The market’s implied 1-in-3 chance for exactly 33°C[2] contradicts these established thermal baselines, suggesting the crowd underestimates the likelihood of higher ranges.

Traders must monitor heatwave announcements and monsoon progression schedules, as delayed rainfall can sustain extreme temperatures. The Times of India recently reported Lucknow recorded its hottest June in five years, with a maximum of 44.7°C, and warned the heatwave is expected to persist[8]. Dependencies include real-time Wunderground updates and IMD bulletins; a conditional order triggered by a sudden 40°C+ reading would capture the upside if the 0% probability fails to adjust before the 2026-07-07 settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.