Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question is whether the Dallas Love Field reading on 9 August 2026 lands in the 98–99°F band, a level that closely matches both the day’s heat potential and the crowd’s current 0% pricing on the market’s lower outcomes. Weather Underground is the settlement source, so a programmatic approach should key off the Daily Observations table for KDAL rather than any summary high/low panel, and should watch for late data revisions until the next day’s first datapoint appears.[3][7]

For context, Dallas often reaches the upper 90s in August, and the National Weather Service has reported 101°F as the daytime maximum for 9 August 2026 at nearby Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, with a forecast maximum around 101°F and very warm overnight conditions.[4][6] That makes a high in the high-90s plausible, but the market resolves on the Love Field station and on the exact highest observed Fahrenheit value, not on citywide averages or another airport’s maximum.[3][8]

A trader monitoring this mechanically would track the Weather Underground history page for KDAL, then trigger only when the final daily maximum is locked in after the station posts its next-day observation. The main catalyst is simply the appearance of the completed daily record; there are no scheduled policy events involved, so the practical dependencies are the station feed, any backfilled corrections, and the time the next day’s first reading is published.[3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.