Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 98% |
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 88% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 79% |
| O/U 39.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| O/U 40.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 72% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 68% |
| O/U 44.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 45.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| O/U 47.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 55% |
| O/U 48.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| O/U 50.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 51.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| O/U 52.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Safety? | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| O/U 53.5 | 38% |
| Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 36% |
| O/U 54.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1H Moneyline | 32% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 29% |
| O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 56.5 | 28% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -19.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 62.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 63.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Patriots vs. Bills. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 27% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $3.1M.
Methodology
We track Patriots vs. Bills across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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