Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 23% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 22% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 19% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 15% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 11% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 10% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 10% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 10% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 10% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 10% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 9% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 9% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 9% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 2% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 1% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
Market context
Sport Lisboa e Benfica host FC St. Gallen in the Europa League qualifier after the Swiss side won the first leg 2-1 in St Gallen, so the exact-score market is pricing a comeback scenario rather than a clean home win. Benfica’s own club report confirms the 2-1 defeat in the opening tie, while match previews and score pages show this is a regulation-time market only, with any result outside the listed score grid resolving to “Any Other Score”.[10][3]
For comparable framing, Benfica generally profile as the stronger attacking side on recent form: preview data puts them on 41 goals in 20 matches, with 12 wins, five draws and three losses, while St. Gallen’s preview line shows 37 goals scored and 11 wins from 20.[1] The first leg also supports a higher-scoring read than the crowd’s 2% implied chance for any single exact score, because a 2-1 away result already landed and both teams have recent games in the two-to-four-goal range.[8][6] For a programmatic trader, that means exact-score selection should be treated as a thin tail over a broader goals distribution, not as a simple favourite/underdog binary.[1][8]
The main catalysts are lineup news, any late injury or rotation updates, and confirmation that the match proceeds as scheduled at Estádio da Luz, since exact-score markets are highly sensitive to a single absentee in attack or defence. Benfica’s club channels and major fixtures pages have already tracked the tie and the first-leg result, so the practical workflow is to monitor official team announcements, then compare them with live odds or score APIs shortly before kick-off and again once line-ups are published.[10][3][6]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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