How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

78% odds: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds | Kalshifees 2026

Name: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Start: 2026-07-22T13:00:42.000Z
End: 2026-08-04T23:10:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	78%	22%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Place a position →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	78%	22%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Place a position →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Place a position →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Place a position →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	78%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	65%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds	57%
O/U 8.5	54%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	53%
NRFI	50%
Spread -1.5	47%
O/U 9.5	44%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	41%
O/U 10.5	37%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	35%
Spread -2.5	34%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	31%
Spread -1.5	28%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	27%
Spread -2.5	20%
Extra Innings	9%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 78% probability to cleveland guardians vs. cincinnati reds. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for July 28 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 78% for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 78% Other 22%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $282K.

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds on Kalshi Fees

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