How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

70% odds: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Name: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Start: 2026-07-19T13:03:24.974Z
End: 2026-08-01T22:40:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	70%	30%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Place a position →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	70%	30%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Place a position →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Place a position →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Place a position →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	70%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	56%
O/U 7.5	53%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	47%
NRFI	45%
O/U 8.5	45%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	43%
Spread -1.5	36%
O/U 9.5	34%
Spread -1.5	33%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	32%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	30%
Spread -2.5	26%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	24%
Spread -2.5	24%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	20%
Extra Innings	9%

Market context

The Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction market currently prices this outcome at 70% YES. In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for July 25 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 70% for "Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 70% Other 30%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $101K.

Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on Kalshi Fees

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