Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-2.5) | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tigres UANL and Minnesota United met in the Leagues Cup group phase on 7 August, with ESPN’s live match page showing the game in progress and ESPN Deportes later recording Tigres as the winners on penalties. That context matters for a **More Markets** contract: a 0% crowd-implied YES price usually means the market is either tied to a very specific secondary outcome or the crowd expects the relevant settlement condition not to be met, so the key is to map the contract text against the actual match and whether any qualifying sub-market was launched, suspended, or voided during play.[4][8][9]
There is little prior head-to-head evidence to anchor a pre-match model, with multiple stat sites noting no meaningful previous meetings or no available H2H data beyond this cup tie. For a power-user running this programmatically, that means relying less on historical matchup priors and more on event metadata: line-up releases, penalty shoot-out rules, any live-market toggles, and whether “more markets” means totals, corners, bookings, or a derived yes/no on a post-match condition. Tigres entered off a 1-1 draw and shoot-out win over Real Salt Lake, while Minnesota came in after a 1-2 loss to FC Juárez, so recency can help only at the team-form level, not the contract-specific settlement logic.[3][4][9]
The practical catalysts are operational rather than narrative: official line-ups, competition status updates, match suspension or abandonment notices, and any confirmation that the listed market remained open through the full settlement window ending 8 August at 01:00 UTC. If you are automating decisions with bots or conditional orders, the highest-value checks are the market’s definition, whether the underlying event reached a final result, and whether the exchange’s rules treat extra time or penalties as part of settlement, because this fixture went beyond regulation in a way that can change how side markets resolve.[8][9]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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