Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 98% |
| Any Other Score | 9% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 3% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 98% chance of 1. fc cologne vs. real sociedad san sebastian - exact score. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming Club Friendlies game between 1. FC Cologne and Real Sociedad San Sebastian, scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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