Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| RCD Mallorca (-1.5) | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RCD Mallorca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| RCD Mallorca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
RCD Mallorca are facing Paris Saint-Germain in a pre-season friendly at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, with the official PSG match page listing kick-off at 18:00 UTC and line-ups due one hour beforehand. PSG’s own report says this was their first pre-season friendly of the summer, which is useful context for reading a **100% YES** price on a “More Markets” contract: these markets often settle on the presence of ancillary listings rather than the match result itself, so the key input is whether the sports book or event page publishes additional market lines before the settlement window closes.[3][2]
For comparable cases, traders usually treat “more markets” in a friendly as a platform-completeness question, not a football strength question. That matters because PSG are the larger club and have already been handed the fixture in their official calendar, but the market can still move only if the host, feed, or exchange adds extra propositions such as first goalscorer, cards, corners, or half-time options. In programmatic terms, the clean approach is to monitor the event object, its market count, and the status of derivative listings from the initial feed rather than infer from pre-match favourites alone.[3][8]
The main catalysts are operational: PSG’s line-up drop one hour pre-kick-off, any last-minute squad rotation, and whether the match remains on the official broadcast and match-centre feeds that the clubs have already promoted. Because friendly coverage can be patched in late, a bot or conditional-order workflow should watch for market creation timestamps, duplicate market definitions, and settlement-rule wording updates on the event page before the 18:00 UTC deadline.[3][8]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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