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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game 3 Winner 70% Game 2 Winner 68% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Match Winner 65% Volume: $978K Liquidity: $868K Closes: 5 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 70% 30% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 70% 30% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 3 Winner70%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Match Winner65%
Game 4 Winner61%
Game 1 Winner53%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 5?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 5?50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?50%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)45%
First Blood in Game 1?45%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3?42%
O/U 4.5 Games37%
Any Player Rampage26%
Any Player Rampage23%
Game Handicap: FLC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)20%

Market context

Market consensus: 70% chance of dota 2: team falcons vs team liquid (bo5) - 1win essence playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between Team Falcons and Team Liquid in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 1:00PM ET. This market wi…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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