Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 98% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 95% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 2+ saves | 77% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 68% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 62% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Iñaki Williams: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Iñaki Williams: 4+ shots | 39% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 24% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The Colombia vs. Ghana - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Colombia and Ghana, scheduled for July 3 at 9:30 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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