Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 67% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 62% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 42% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 38% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Vózinha: 5+ saves | 31% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 30% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 18% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 11% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals | 5% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 87%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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