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Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Five-platform snapshot of "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Lisa Demuth 62% Mike Lindell 36% Kendall Qualls 1% Scott Jensen 0% Volume: $630K Liquidity: $229K Closes: 11 Aug 2026
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Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
62% 38% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
62% 38% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Lisa Demuth62%
Mike Lindell36%
Kendall Qualls1%
Scott Jensen0%
Jeff Johnson0%
Patrick Knight0%
Brad Kohler0%
Chris Madel0%
Phil Parrish0%
Kristin Robbins0%
Other0%
Candidate B0%
Candidate C0%
Candidate D0%
Candidate E0%
Candidate F0%
Candidate G0%
Candidate H0%
Candidate I0%
Candidate J0%
Candidate K0%
Candidate L0%
Candidate M0%
Candidate N0%
Candidate O0%
Candidate P0%
Candidate Q0%
Candidate R0%
Candidate S0%
Candidate T0%
Candidate U0%
Candidate V0%
Candidate W0%
Candidate X0%
Candidate Y0%
Candidate Z0%

Market context

The Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 62% YES. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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