Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on whether to lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at its next three meetings in April, June, and July 2026. The current target range sits at 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged since the March 18 meeting, following a series of cuts in late 2025[1]. Historically, the Fed has only cut rates when economic weakness or high unemployment emerges, as seen in the 2024–2025 cycle; conversely, rising inflation has previously triggered hikes, such as the 2022–2023 tightening phase[7]. With inflationary pressures now muddying the outlook and the Fed holding steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the 0% crowd-implied probability for a cut aligns with recent precedent where the committee prioritises price stability over immediate employment gains[2].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor the FOMC statements released at 18:00 GMT on April 29, June 17, and July 29, alongside the accompanying economic projections and dot plots[3]. Key catalysts include the latest CPI and PCE inflation data, the non-farm payroll reports, and any shifts in Treasury yield curves that signal market expectations for rate moves[5]. Recent commentary from Fidelity notes that investors are increasingly betting on a hike before year-end due to persistent inflation, though derivatives markets still assign nearly a 60% chance of at least one rate increase by December[2]. Conditional orders or copy-trading bots should be calibrated to react to the “stance of monetary policy” phrasing in the FOMC statement, which explicitly references progress toward the 2% inflation goal[6]. Any deviation from the 3.50%–3.75% range would constitute a qualifying hike or cut, resolving the market accordingly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.