Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 2 Winner | 47% |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 43% |
| Match Winner | 34% |
| Map 1 Winner | 28% |
Market context
Market consensus: 51% chance of valorant: tyloo vs g2 esports (bo3) - vct champions group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between TYLOO and G2 Esports in the VCT Champions Group C, initially scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: TYLOO vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions … on Kalshi Fees
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