Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 4 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DK.C (-2.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
Market context
The LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Dplus KIA Challengers and KT Rolster Challengers in the LCK Challengers League Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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