Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Resilience face OG in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International group stage on 14 August 2026. The fixture is scheduled for 01:00 ET, with settlement closing at 12:10 UTC the same day. The crowd-implied probability of 82% YES reflects strong confidence in Team Resilience's victory, though the compressed settlement window—roughly 11 hours after the scheduled start—leaves minimal margin for fixture delays or extended series play.

Historical precedent suggests OG's tournament pedigree warrants scrutiny of this probability. OG have won The International twice (2018, 2019) and remain consistent top-eight finishers; their group-stage performances typically reflect disciplined drafting and mid-game execution. Team Resilience's recent LAN results and roster stability relative to OG's current lineup composition will determine whether the 82% weighting reflects genuine skill differential or crowd overconfidence. Comparable group-stage matchups at recent Internationals have shown 75–80% probabilities favour established organisations, but upsets occur when roster changes or meta shifts disadvantage the favoured side.

Traders should monitor official Valve scheduling announcements for any delays beyond the original 01:00 ET window; postponements exceeding 168 hours from that timestamp trigger the settlement extension clause. Patch notes released in the week prior will shape both teams' preparation depth. Roster confirmations and recent bootcamp scrim results—typically shared via team social channels or esports news outlets like Liquipedia—provide real-time calibration for conditional orders. Given the tight settlement deadline, automated monitoring of match start confirmations becomes essential for managing execution risk.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.