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Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi Fees.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) 100% Volume: $137K Liquidity: $1.3M Closes: 29 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.590%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.590%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.590%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5)90%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-9.5) vs Misa Esports (+9.5)10%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.510%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-9.5) vs Misa Esports (+9.5)10%
O/U 2.5 Games0%

Market context

The Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between Bebop and Misa Esports in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D, initially scheduled for July 29 at 1:00PM ET. T…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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