Bitcoin price on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s fixing for this market is the **1-minute Binance BTC/USDT close at 12:00 ET**, so the practical question is not “where Bitcoin trades during the day” but whether that single candle settles inside the relevant bracket. At around 06:00 UTC, spot references in the results cluster in the low- to mid-$62,000s, with Binance’s own prediction page citing a broad August forecast range well above that level, while several live trackers place BTC between roughly $62,000 and $64,000; that makes the market’s 0% YES price look like an extreme view of the exact noon print rather than a generic spot call.[3][4][7][14]

For context, Bitcoin has spent 2026 with large swings but also long stretches of range trading. Recent historical snapshots in the search results show BTC near $63,136 on 2 August, around $62,706 the morning before, and as low as about $60,074 earlier in the year, which means a single-minute close can move materially on a brief wick or a concentrated order burst.[3][10][15] For a programmatic trader, that is the key lesson: the market is best approached like a timestamped data problem, not a directional thesis, with conditional orders, venue checks and candle-capture logic all more important than a broad “up or down” bias.

The main catalysts are the usual intraday drivers: US macro data, ETF flow headlines, any sudden exchange-specific news, and large spot or derivatives flows that hit the order book close to noon Eastern. Because the settlement source is Binance, the relevant dependency is the live BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on that venue rather than a composite index, so liquidity shifts on Binance itself can matter more than cross-market averages; recent market commentary also frames August as a seasonally weaker period for Bitcoin, with some analysts highlighting range-bound trading and downside risk rather than momentum continuation.[12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.