Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 11 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Today, current conditions show heavy rain and a temperature of 27–30°C, with a typhoon influencing the weather pattern [3][4][9]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific “YES” outcome likely reflects a binary framing error in the user’s view, as the Polymarket version of this event shows 29°C as the frontrunner at 28%, followed by 30°C at 26% [1].

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs near 34°C (92°F) at Songshan Airport, though typhoons and monsoon surges often suppress peaks to 28–31°C [2]. Programmatic traders should model this as a conditional distribution: if the typhoon persists through midday, the high likely caps at 29–30°C; if it clears by afternoon, 31–33°C becomes plausible. The 0% crowd probability may stem from misaligned resolution logic or a lack of liquidity in the specific binary contract being referenced.

Key catalysts include the typhoon’s track and timing, hourly precipitation totals, and the Central Weather Administration’s updates on apparent temperature and wind speed [4]. Traders running automated strategies should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly feed and cross-reference with CWA’s 08:00 UTC airport report for real-time validation [4]. A sudden drop in rain intensity or a wind shift could trigger a rapid reprice toward higher temperature bins, especially if the system weakens before 12:00 UTC settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.