Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s Bao’an International Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 20 July 2026, with the market resolving based on the highest Celsius reading logged at that station. Today, the airport sits under sunny skies with a current temperature of 88°F (31°C) and a RealFeel of 104°F, driven by 78% humidity and light winds [1]. The settlement hinges on whether the day’s maximum exceeds historical mid-July norms, which typically range between 30°C and 34°C in this location.

Historical data from similar July dates shows Shenzhen frequently hitting 34°C or higher, as seen in the July 12, 2026 market where 34°C was priced at 100% probability [4]. Yet the current 0% YES probability for any outcome above the lowest range suggests the crowd expects a cooler day, possibly due to the 90% forecasted chance of precipitation and scattered thunderstorms [3]. This divergence between typical summer highs and today’s wetter forecast frames the low implied probability as a reaction to immediate weather dependencies rather than seasonal averages.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for shifts in cloud cover or storm intensity that could suppress peak temperatures [1]. The MeteoBlue forecast indicates broken clouds and temporary thunderstorm rain, which are key catalysts that could keep the maximum near 29–30°C [2]. Programmatically, a power-user would script a bot to pull hourly Wunderground data and trigger conditional orders if the 14:00–16:00 local reading stays below 32°C, aligning with the crowd’s bearish temperature stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.