Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with the resolution tied to the highest Fahrenheit reading recorded that day via Wunderground. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for any outcome outside the expected range, reflecting strong consensus that temperatures will stay within a narrow band typical for mid-summer in the Bay Area.

Historical July highs at KSFO rarely exceed 82°F, with the 78–79°F range appearing in over 60% of past years, making it the statistical frontrunner. This aligns with the current Polymarket frontrunner, where 78–79°F holds 93% of the implied probability, while 80–81°F accounts for just 6% [1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for alternative outcomes suggests traders view extreme heat as highly improbable under normal climatic conditions.

Programmatic traders should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for KSFO and cross-reference with NOAA’s hourly station data to detect anomalies before settlement. Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast updates and any sudden shifts in marine layer strength, which directly modulate coastal temperatures. A recent analysis from the San Francisco Chronicle notes that persistent high-pressure systems in early July can suppress marine influence, but such events remain rare in mid-July [2]. Conditional order bots can exploit small deviations in live temperature data to front-run settlement outcomes.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.