Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Historical patterns for Qingdao in July show consistent warmth, with average daily highs typically reaching 29°C (83°F) and peaks occasionally climbing to 31°C (87.8°F) during hotter spells[1][7]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range is 0% YES, a power-user evaluating this tooling would programmatically back-test these historical ranges against Wunderground’s daily archives to identify where the resolution threshold likely sits, rather than relying on the market’s current zero probability which may reflect a lack of liquidity or mispricing[2][6].

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time weather dependencies, particularly the forecast for thundery showers and high humidity currently observed in Qingdao, which can suppress peak temperatures[3]. A key catalyst to watch is the AccuWeather forecast for July 2026, which predicts daily highs ranging from 77°F to 89°F (25°C to 32°C), suggesting the resolution could fall near the upper end of the typical range if cloud cover clears[5]. Since the settlement window ends on 9 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, conditional orders should be triggered by the hourly Wunderground updates for the Jiaodong station, ensuring the bot captures the precise daily maximum before the market resolves[9]. The presence of 100% humidity and southerly winds observed at 06:00 BST today indicates a potential cap on the temperature, a factor that automated strategies must weight heavily against the historical 31°C peak[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.