Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 6 July 2026, a metric that will determine the settlement of the prediction market. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, yet historical data frames this as a statistical anomaly rather than a certainty. Recent heatwaves at the same station saw temperatures reach 102°F during the day and a record-breaking 94°F at midnight in early July 2026[2][4]. AccuWeather forecasts July daily highs for LaGuardia typically ranging between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F[6]. This volatility suggests that a 0% probability ignores the established pattern of extreme summer heat in the region.

A power-user approaching this programmatically must monitor the specific dependencies tied to Wunderground’s data feed and the operational constraints compounding the heat. Delta Air Lines has already issued advisories noting that hot weather is compounding with operational limits at LaGuardia, potentially affecting travel schedules and creating feedback loops for temperature spikes[8]. Traders should watch for official National Weather Service updates and the precise timing of the settlement window, which ends at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026[7]. The catalyst is the persistence of the East Coast heatwave, which recently pushed LaGuardia to its highest midnight temperature ever[5]. Ignoring these live operational warnings and the forecasted 81–99°F range would be a critical error in any algorithmic strategy.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.