Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 7 August 2026, using Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table as the settlement source. For a programmatic trader, that means the key object is not the headline “day high” but the underlying observation feed, with the relevant bin determined by the single warmest valid reading published before the next day’s datapoint appears.[7][3]

The current **0% YES** implies the market is priced as if a qualifying outcome is effectively impossible, but comparable summer NYC temperature markets usually settle within a narrow band shaped by synoptic heat and local coastal effects. Recent market pricing on the same event showed the modal bins around **88–91°F**, with Weather Underground history for New York City already showing an **82°F** report at JFK for 7 August, which is consistent with a warm but not extreme day in the city’s airport stations.[3][4] In practical terms, the relevant comparison set is nearby late-summer days where a one- or two-degree change can move the result into a different bracket.[1][5]

A trader watching this programmatically would track the Weather Underground station page, the timing of the final daily observation, and any late updates that can change the highest recorded value before the next date is published.[4][7] The main catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak, sea-breeze timing, cloud cover, and any convective showers that suppress the maximum; NWS climate products and standard forecast pages are useful for spotting whether the day is likely to finish in the upper 80s or low 90s, but settlement follows the station table rather than the forecast summary.[8][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.