Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur International Airport is set up for a warm, humid monsoon-season day, with the official Malaysian Met forecast calling for **33°C** and *no rain* across morning, afternoon and night. For this market, the key number is not the headline daily high but the highest reading that appears in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off, so intraday spikes matter more than the summary box.

The 0% implied probability leaves little room for uncertainty, but Kuala Lumpur’s August climatology argues against treating low early prints as decisive. Historical August averages cluster around the high 20s Celsius, while daily highs commonly reach around 30–31°C, and nearby app forecasts for today range from **32–34°C** with thunderstorms possible later. That combination means a move into the 33–34°C band is normal enough that a zero-priced outcome can be fragile if the airport site logs a hotter midday reading than the market currently discounts.[1][4][8][11][13]

A trader watching this programmatically would track the airport station feed, not the city forecast, and alert on every new observation between dawn and the settlement window. The practical catalysts are convective heating, cloud breaks, and timing: a brief lull in rain can let the temperature peak quickly, while a shower can cap the high. The Malaysian Meteorological Department’s district forecast, AccuWeather’s hourly path, and Weather Underground’s table should be checked together, but only the latter resolves the market, so any bot or conditional order logic should trigger off the live Daily Observations maximum rather than the forecast maximum.[5][8][11][15][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.