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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

29°C 41% 30°C 32% 28°C 13% 31°C 12% Volume: $112K Liquidity: $75K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Fees) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 41% 59% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 41% 59% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
29°C41%
30°C32%
28°C13%
31°C12%
32°C4%
23°C or below0%
24°C0%
25°C0%
26°C0%
27°C0%
33°C or higher0%

Market context

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7? — current market-implied probability: 41%. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market wi…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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