Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This figure will determine which temperature range the market resolves to, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026. The crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market currently expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. In the early part of July, Hong Kong typically sees average high temperatures of 30.4°C, with daily highs often ranging between 86°F and 95°F (30°C to 35°C) [3][4]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 predicts normal to above-normal temperatures, influenced by the latest ENSO status and climate models [2]. While 31°C is priced at 37.5% in a parallel market for 6 July [5], the current 0% probability implies traders are betting the temperature will stay below the threshold or that the specific range is too narrow to be hit given typical variability.

A power-user approaching this programmatically must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max” value, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published [10]. Key catalysts include the release of the official daily report and any updates to the multi-model consensus forecast system for the Pearl River Delta region [9]. Traders should also watch for short-term weather outlooks, such as the forecast indicating mainly cloudy conditions with light rain patches through 9 July, which could suppress peak temperatures [7]. The resolution source is strictly the Hong Kong Observatory’s official data, making dependencies on their publication schedule critical for timing any conditional orders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.