Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s most intense heat and humidity period. Historical data confirms June is one of Guangzhou’s wettest months, with average rainfall of 280 mm and frequent heavy storms, yet temperatures routinely climb to 33°C or higher, with the all-time June record reaching 36.6°C [1][3]. This context explains why the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a 34°C outcome appears misaligned; similar markets have shown frontrunners at 35°C with 100% confidence just days prior, suggesting the 0% figure may reflect a temporary liquidity gap rather than genuine meteorological doubt [2].

A programmatic trader would approach this by querying Wunderground’s historical API for the Baiyun station’s daily max temperature, then cross-referencing with real-time forecasts from AccuWeather, which currently predicts daily highs between 85°F and 95°F (29.4°C–35°C) for June 2026 [4]. Key catalysts to monitor include the subtropical high-pressure system’s strength, which directly amplifies temperatures, and the potential for typhoons, a known June risk that could abruptly suppress heat [1][5]. Recent travel reports from Shenzhen and Zhuhai note evening downpours but otherwise stable, hot conditions, reinforcing that rain events in this region are often short-lived and do not necessarily prevent peak afternoon temperatures from exceeding 34°C [7]. Traders should watch for official meteorological bulletins on high-pressure anomalies, as these dependencies are the primary drivers of resolution outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.