Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s daytime peak on 6 August is the recorded maximum at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, with settlement tied to the day’s highest observation rather than a citywide average or forecast headline. For a programme-based trader, the cleanest workflow is to watch the Wunderground history page for the station, query the Celsius toggle, and map the final observed maximum into the market’s temperature bins only after the day closes and the source has stopped revising earlier readings.

The current 0% yes price is difficult to square with the local climatology. August in Guangzhou is typically hot and humid, with common highs around the low 30s Celsius and frequent rain, while multiple forecasters today have the city near 35–36°C for 6 August and some model-based services show maxima around 32–33°C with rain or thunderstorms. Official Chinese weather dispatches and major forecast sites therefore place the day in the range where a mid-30s reading is plausible, which is enough to keep the upper bins live if cloud cover thins or a brief sun break arrives.[1][2][4][9][15][18]

The main catalysts are intraday weather evolution and airport-observed conditions, not scheduled announcements. Traders watching via bots or conditional orders should track whether convective rain builds in the afternoon, since precipitation and cloud cover can cap the top-end temperature, while a stronger subtropical ridge or delayed showers can allow a later peak. Guangzhou’s forecast from several sources is mixed between showers, cloud, and warmer daytime highs, so the practical edge comes from monitoring the airport station’s live observations and the source’s revision policy, because the market resolves to the highest recorded value on the date, not the forecast maximum.[2][3][8][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.