Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 11 July 2026, a metric that will determine the resolution of this weather prediction market. The settlement hinges on the highest Celsius reading logged at the station before the 12:00 UTC cutoff, sourced directly from Wunderground’s historical daily archive.

Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a statistical outlier rather than a realistic baseline. July is Chengdu’s hottest month, with average highs reaching 32°C and frequent spikes to 38°C, making a non-occurrence of high temperatures highly improbable under normal climatic conditions [2][4]. Recent records show yesterday’s maximum hitting 39°C (102°F), reinforcing that extreme heat is the seasonal norm rather than an anomaly [3]. Programmatically, a trader would script a bot to monitor Wunderground’s live feed against the 32°C threshold, flagging any deviation from the 30–35°C day average as a potential arbitrage signal [4][6].

Traders should watch for real-time meteorological updates from the Sichuan Meteorological Bureau, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress peak temperatures. While no specific weather announcements have been issued for 11 July yet, the dependency on Wunderground’s hourly data means latency in reporting could create temporary pricing inefficiencies [7]. A conditional order strategy would trigger only if the live temperature reading exceeds the market’s implied range, capitalising on the high historical probability of July heatwaves in this region [5][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.