Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak afternoon temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as an outlier; July 2024 saw maximums reach 35°C or above on 10 July, and the all-time monthly maximum for July since 1885 is 35.7°C[2][3]. Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical consensus runs typically indicate a high near 33–34°C for this date under standard conditions, suggesting the market’s dismissal of higher ranges ignores credible historical precedent[1].

A power-user evaluating this tooling should programmatically monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” once finalized, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published[8]. Key catalysts include the official release schedule for July 2026 climatological data and any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns, such as the influence of tropical systems or heat domes. Recent forecasts for Hong Kong’s July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 85°F to 95°F (approximately 29.4°C to 35°C), reinforcing that temperatures above 34°C remain plausible despite the current crowd-implied probability[4]. Traders should script conditional orders to react to the “Absolute Daily Max” value once it appears in the official extract, ensuring execution aligns with the final verified figure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.