Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer temperatures routinely exceed 35°C during July, with daily lows typically remaining above 25°C even at night. The lowest temperature recorded on 19 July will be measured at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly observations throughout each day. This metric captures the single coldest point across the full 24-hour period, making it sensitive to timing of overnight cooling and any transient weather systems passing through the region.

Historical July data from Shanghai shows that sub-20°C lows are exceptionally rare during this month; the airport station typically records minimum temperatures between 24–28°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects this seasonal reality—reaching the lowest temperature ranges would require either a severe cold front (meteorologically anomalous for mid-summer East Asia) or a significant data anomaly. Comparable years show that even unusually cool July days in Shanghai maintain overnight lows above 22°C, establishing a high baseline for any resolution below typical ranges.

For programmatic monitoring, traders should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts and real-time Wunderground feeds in the days preceding 19 July 2026. Any tropical cyclone activity affecting the Yangtze River Delta region would be the primary catalyst for material temperature deviation; such systems are typically flagged 5–10 days in advance. Conditional orders tied to typhoon warnings or significant upper-air pattern shifts would capture tail-risk scenarios, though historical frequency suggests such events rarely produce the extreme cooling needed to shift this market meaningfully from consensus.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.