Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's daily minimum temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the absolute daily minimum figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, sourced from the Observatory's official climate records. This measurement captures the lowest temperature reached during the calendar day, regardless of time of occurrence.

July sits within Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when daily minima typically range between 25–27°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that July minimums rarely fall below 24°C or exceed 29°C in the territory. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual minimum to fall outside whatever range this particular market offers—a signal worth examining against the Observatory's 30-year climate normals. Reviewing comparable July dates from previous years via the Observatory's historical Daily Extracts provides the baseline for calibrating realistic temperature bands.

Traders automating resolution monitoring should flag the Observatory's publication schedule: Daily Extracts typically appear within 2–3 days of the target date, though delays occur during severe weather events. The settlement window closes 13 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, but final data may not be available until mid-to-late July. Conditional order logic should account for this lag—setting triggers on the Observatory's data release rather than the market close time. Monitoring tropical cyclone forecasts and monsoon intensity reports from the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal advisories in early July will signal whether atmospheric conditions favour anomalously cool or warm minima.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.